In and Out Big East Conference Summer Preview 2

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July 27, 2008 12:00am

Here is a look at the recruiting classes from writer of Calm Before the Storm column on Johnny Jungle, Garrett Knieste + quick analysis of those classes by Pico Dulce (of course Pico is not his real name), the proprietor of the East Coast Bias blog. For each team, we list the recruiting class, the individual player rankings from Rivals and Scout, and some short notes about how the school will be affected by the incoming class.

The format: Player name; Class (transferred from/ to if applicable); POSITION; Size; Rivals rank (in stars); Scout rank (in stars) –or– statistics from previous Division I school.

Obviously, some schools are very set in their rotation, and freshmen may be learning through limited minutes (let's say under 40% of the minutes they could have played). Other schools have needs, and will be plugging freshmen in to critical roles off the bench. And some schools will have serious needs and will have to depend on their freshmen to hold down a role. One or two freshmen can make impacts on a veteran squad, but leaning solely on freshmen is not a recipe for success, as we know from last year's St. John's team and 2007's Connecticut team. But the right freshman/ first year player can lead one's teams to all kind of heights. Purdue pulled off the 4-freshman roster off very nicely; freshmen can have program-changing impact at the Big East level as well.

By the same token, players and whole teams can regress as well; the impact of the freshmen can be offset by poor performance by the returning veterans, by team in-fighting, by coaching and player issues, and by injury. Players are spending the summer getting stronger, building endurance, and learning how to counter that team that scraped them last year. The Big East has some fluidity, no matter how many writers go off in June about how there will be 9 NCAA Tournament teams from the league. So take the early pre-season commentary with a grain of salt, and know that some team is going to come out of next-to-nowhere like Notre Dame did last year.

So, let's take a look at the incoming recruits of the Big East in Part 2 of 4 of this series continuing our path in reverse alphabetical order keeping an eye towards how they will play, and each team's early outlook for the 2008/2009 season:

Pico Dulce is a midwest guy with east coast roots. He enjoys watching his sports via satellite TV because you aren’t catching too many New York games in Chicago bars. PIco is a diehard Mets and St. John’s fan and yes he does have an East Coast Bias. You can email him at pico.dulce@gmail.com

Who's In?

• Jordan Theodore (freshman) PG – 6'0" 170lbs ***/ ***

• Melvyn Oliver (freshman) C – 6'11" 330lbs ***/ ***

• Jamel Jackson (transfer from TCI College – Sophomore) SG – 6'3" 195lbs

• Robert "Stix" Mitchell (transfer from Duquesne – Sophomore) SG – 6'6" 175lbs (26.8mpg, 16.4ppg, 5.4rpg) * sat out 07-08

• Keon Lawrence (transfer from Missouri – RS Junior) SG – 6'2" 175lbs (29.2mpg, 11ppg, 2.3apg) *will sit out 08-09

Who's Out?

• Jamar Nutter (graduation) – 29.5mpg, 10.9ppg, 2.2apg

• Brian Laing (graduation) – 38.3mpg, 18.6ppg, 6.9rpg

• Austin Okusun (transfer) – 9.7mpg, 1.8ppg, 2rpg

• Larry Davis (transfer – Loyola Marymount) – 21.1mpg, 5.8ppg, 3.4rpg

Seton Hall 17-15 (7-11)

Seton Hall has turnover like St. John's does! But some of their turnover is good. The Pirates are getting the former Atlantic 10 rookie of the year Robert Mitchell, Jamel Jackson (known as a distance shooter), and Jordan Theodore. Big Melvyn Oliver will have to hustle to keep up with the speed of the Seton Hall game; when he gets to the right spot, he will hopefully add to the inside presence of John Garcia and Mike Davis. The problem, of course, is that the Pirates' style doesn't lend itself to big inside presences, and they will need something on the interior defensively; they gave up a whopping 14.2 offensive rebounds a game. Part of that is the fast paced, high-possession style, but part of that is just not being strong down low and cleaning the glass.

Freshman Impact: Medium impact; Mitchell may be a player, and Theodore may be ready, but the loss of Brian Laing, who never came off the court, will be felt. Nutter and Davis' contributions will also be missed. But they will be made up with more minutes for Paul Gause, who is an unbelievably good ball-thief. Theodore or Jackson will have to provide scoring from the outside.

Overall: This team will struggle to make the NCAA Tournament, but they may see some postseason action (NIT), especially if they get John Garcia or another rebounder/ shot blocker involved. Garcia was also a very efficient scorer; slowing down the game so he can take up some possessions could really help Bobby Gonzalez' Pirates.

St. John's 11-19 (5-13)

Who's In?

• TyShwan Edmondson (freshman) PG – 6'3" 175lbs ***/**

• Quincy Roberts (freshman) SG – 6'5" 185lbs ***/**

• Phil Wait (freshman) C – 7'1" 240lbs [NR]/**

Who's Out?

• Larry Wright (transfer – Oakland University) – 18.9 mpg, 9.1ppg, 1.3rpg

• Mike Cavataio (transfer – Holy Cross) – 5.9mpg, 1.4ppg, 1.2rpg

• Eugene Lawrence (graduation) – 27.9mpg, 7.7ppg, 3.7apg

Lawrence and Wright were rotation players who will be missed. But Lawrence's positive contributions were offset by strong negatives, and Wright's contributions were limited by playing time. Their production is replaceable, depending on the development of the freshmen, especially Paris Horne and Malik Boothe, who will play more minutes in the coming season. Edmondson will help at the point guard position, and Quincy Roberts may help at both positions, depending on his scoring ability. Phil Wait is tall, but a bit of a mystery; the staff hopes he will be a shot blocking force and a complement to Dele Coker and Sean Evans. The staff and fans hope Rob Thomas comes back well from his injury; in his limited time he showed some skill. Burrell needs to make better decisions with the ball in his hands; hopefully the staff and point guards put him in position to use his speed and jumping athleticism.

Freshman Impact: Slight impact; whoever plays the backup point guard will be the most important member of the recruiting class. If Wait is really ready to play, he could help minimize the beatings from the bigger teams in conference. And if Roberts can shoot (and play defense; the defense got Wright glued to the bench last year), he could be a help to the weak offense.

Overall: The team may surprise and be better than the bottom 4 of the conference, but not "make the NCAAs" better. And that is probably the homer in me talking. There is a lot of ground to make up offensively- the Red Storm were one of the worst teams in the country shooting inside the arc at 44% - and defensively, where earlier teams were better defensive squads. And so much more needs to change – the turnovers on both sides of the ball, better free throw shooting, better rebounding… The sophomores have to up their game, and Mason has to integrate his game with the rest of the squad instead of taking all the shots.

Rutgers 11-20 (3-15)

Who's In?

• Greg Echenique (freshman) C – 6'9" 260lbs ****/ ****

• Mike Rosario (freshman) SG – 6'2" 170lbs ****/ ****

• Christian Morris (freshman) PF – 6'9" 270lbs ***/ ***

• Patrick Jackson (freshman) SG – 6'5" 180lbs ***/ ***

• Jonathan Mitchell (transfer from Florida – RS Junior) PF – 6'7" 230lbs (11.4mpg, 3.1ppg, 1.8rpg) *must sit out 08-09 season

Who's Out?

• Byron Joynes (graduation) – 19.9mpg, 3.1ppg, 5.5rpg

• Justin Sofman (transfer – Monmouth University) – 5.1mpg, 2.0ppg, 0.2rpg

Rutgers has brought in a recruiting class that turns heads, and some of these players will find themselves a good chunk of playing time in 08-09. Greg Echenique has found himself eligible for the coming season; Mike Rosario is a McDonald's All-American and regarded as an excellent outside shooter. Jackson and Morris are solid players. The only question will be how to integrate these new players with mainstays JR Inman, Hamidy N'Diaye, and Anthony Farmer? And how will Corey Chandler and Mike Coburn respond to changes in playing time? The returning guards are going to see their playing time dip, and will have to look to pass the ball more often. Will Fred Hill and JR Inman squash their public beef? Will Inman be marginalized so Echenique can get some minutes?

Freshman Impact: This high impact class is a definite improvement; the offense couldn't get any worse, and the Knights add a low post scorer and a reliable outside shooter to a team that couldn't do either particularly well. The Rutgers staff has moved the talent level up. The freshmen will have a large say in where the Scarlet Knights go.

Overall: They're not a tournament team, but if the players gel and Chandler, Coburn, and Inman play to their strengths offensively and defensively (especially on the perimeter), a hot week or two could propel them to the NIT. There's still a ways to go in New Brunswick.

Providence 15-16 (6-12)

Who's In?

• Bilal Dixon (freshman) PF – 6'8" 228lbs ***/ ***

Who's Out?

• Dwain Williams (transfer – Oregon State) – 31.2mpg, 11.0ppg, 2.2apg

• Charles Burch (graduation) – 11.7mpg, 1.6ppg, 1.3rpg

I don't know if it's a good eye for talent or an excellence at coaching, but former coach Tim Welsh knew how to find under-the-radar bigs (Herbert Hill, Geoff McDermott, Ryan Gomes), and Bilal Dixon fits the description. Dwain Williams is a loss, but Jeff Xavier, McDermott, and McKenzie can hoist up outside shots with the best of them. If new coach Keno Davis can get Sharaud Curry back to what he was, this team could be a sleeper threat. Then again, is Sharaud Curry worth 3-4 wins? They could also be wildly disappointing; their defense was often a sieve. And yet they beat Connecticut twice, perhaps they match up well against the Huskies.

Freshman Impact: Low impact; the Friars have a lot of depth at forward, and will look to Jamine Peterson, Jonathan Kale, and perhaps Alex Kellogg to take larger roles.

Overall: Keno Davis came to a team with some good talent in McDermott, Hanke, Xavier, and McKenzie. A solid coaching job could make Providence a bubble team, provided they establish a reliable ballhandler.

Coming Soon...

Tuesday 7/29/08 Part 3: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville

Thursday 7/31/08 Part 4: Georgetown, Depaul, Connecticut, Cincinnati